A State of Uncertainty: North Korea, Russia and the Ukraine War

The Ukraine War has undoubtedly triggered far-reaching global repercussions, with the growing alliance between Russia and North Korea severely undermining global security and the post-war international order. Meanwhile, global efforts are underway to help Ukraine recover from the devastating impacts of war. These parallel developments provide a profound insight into how opportunities for stability and progress emerge in a volatile and unpredictable geopolitical landscape.

In October 2024, NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte confirmed that North Korea had deployed troops to western Russia to aid with their war efforts against Ukraine. This development has raised serious concerns, particularly regarding the benefits that it will bring to North Korea and Kim Jong Un’s broader ambitions for global influence. Not only will this deployment offer North Korean troops valuable combat experience – allowing them to test their military technology against Western forces – but will have far-reaching implications for global security and stability, with the potential to shift the balance of power in international politics. This development should deeply concern the Western world.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are now expected to significantly escalate as North Korea grows increasingly aligned with Russia. Since the beginning of 2024, North Korea has become more belligerent and aggressive toward South Korea, committing provocations such as sending balloons into South Korea filled with refuse and excrement and engaging in artillery fire across the Northern Limit Line.  These actions have likely been fuelled by its acquisition of advanced military and missile technologies. In exchange for troops, it appears that Russia has been providing North Korea with information on how to advance its missile, satellite and submarine programmes. This development is a major global security threat particularly as North Korea demonstrates no desire to engage in talks with South Korea or the US about denuclearisation.

However, the West has several strategic avenues it can explore to safeguard global security and stability. Firstly, the West must bolster its alliances, particularly with South Korea and its regional partners. One effective approach could be for the EU to establish a comprehensive strategic partnership with South Korea, mirroring the depth of the Russia-North Korea pact. This alliance could be leveraged to support efforts in the Ukraine War. For example, Seoul could be persuaded to begin sending lethal aid to Ukraine, a step they have hesitated to take in the past. The West should also prioritise intelligence sharing between European countries and South Korean intelligence services, especially in tracking North Korean troop movements and military activities. The Korean National Intelligence Service has already proven vital for Europeans seeking insight into North Korea’s operations.

Furthermore, Western countries should also carefully consider how to approach China, which currently stands in a very delicate position. While China accounts for over 90% of North Korea’s international trade, the deepening alliance between North Korea and Russia could cause concern for Beijing as its influence over North Korea becomes threatened. As China decides how to respond to its fellow allies, both South Korea and Japan need to maintain open channels of dialogue with China to avoid pushing them further toward North Korea and Russia. Subsequently, the West should also carefully assess the potential repercussions of trade restrictions on China. A hardline approach – such as President Trump’s recent tariffs on Chinese goods – could deepen China’s alignment with North Korea and Russia and further fuel tensions.

Amid these geopolitical changes, Ukraine’s path to post-war recovery offers a glimmer of hope for future stability. Through collective efforts, the West is working to rebuild Ukraine and transform it into a free and prosperous nation, demonstrating a unified front and contributing to a more secure global landscape. Since the start of the war, the EU and the European financial institutions have made available €134 billion in financial, humanitarian, emergency, budget and military support. This has been critical in addressing the country’s immediate needs, from emergency medical supplies to food catering equipment.

European countries are also looking to implement longer-term initiatives and forming international partnerships to help with Ukraine’s overall restoration and recovery.  For instance, in 2023 the Council of Europe adopted a four-year Action Plan called “Resilience, Recover and Reconstruction”. This initiative is focused on strengthening democratic governance, the rule of law and protecting citizens’ human rights in Ukraine. Additionally, last month the UK signed a 100-year partnership agreement with Ukraine. This agreement aims to deepen cooperation across defence and non-defence areas, alongside advancing partnerships in areas such as healthcare, agriculture, space, and drones.

As these efforts unfold, the world stands at a crossroads. While Ukraine embarks on its gradual healing and restoration, the global community watches with uncertainty, wondering what the next moves will be for both Russia and North Korea. As the West strives to reinforce global stability and security, only time will tell if they can effectively navigate the complexities of international politics.