The guest of the debate: Scott Eastman, a geopolitical forecaster and analyst, identified as a “Superforecaster™”

The entire world is anxiously watching the upcoming US Presidential election as it is shaping up to be one of the most spectacular in the country’s modern history—two candidates with two different visions of addressing both domestic and foreign realities. The election will also reflect the deep divisions in American society that have been intensified over the last years by social, political, and cultural issues. Who will become the next US president, what matters most to American voters and what role can we contribute to the current world crises with respect to the election?

For an average American voter, domestic policy is almost exclusively the policy issue that determines the election outcome. The major topics at the center of interest are the economy and inflation, plus immigration policy. Scott Eastman sums the economic perception up with a political question that comes down before every US Presidential election: “Do you feel that you are better off now than you were four years ago?” as the thinking and economic judgments of an average American citizen are simply calculated by buying power, the rise of prices, and their overall economic well-being in the last four years. Scott Eastman adds that many people now feel worse off now than they were at the end of the Trump administration.

It is important to mention that there is a general misperception that having Republicans in the White House means the economy is good thanks to their fiscally conservative approach. On the Democratic side, there is a stereotype that they represent social programs that drive up the deficit. “In reality, they both do (drive up the deficit). The economy does not change that much with either one,” clarifies Eastman.

Based on Scott Eastman’s superforecasting skills, he comments on the possible election outcome: “Right now the election outcome prediction is so close that I still slightly favor Harris to win but it is really close to a toss-up. The polls in all of the key states say that the margin is less than one percent,” making the outcome predictions even more uncertain and unpredictable. Kamala Harris is way ahead with women but behind with men. Younger and more educated people typically favor her, while older and less educated people tend to favor Trump. A special segment of the population is represented by so-called undecided voters who are, from Eastman’s perspective, rather ambivalent voters – those who do not care enough to get up and vote. He adds that he would not be surprised if, on election day, one of the candidates gets six of the seven swing states depending on the motivation they are able to elicit in the undecided segment of the population.

Another major issue is the border and immigration policy. Scott Eastman points out that immigration rates have recently gone down, but there is still a vast number of people crossing the border, including cartels and criminals. “People do have fear of the other and the demographics of America have changed. (…) For many people, voting for Trump means a return to what they imagined things were probably thirty years, forty years ago.” However, he stresses the fact that immigrants in the US have a lower rate of criminality than the general public and they are irreplaceable in the US economy, pointing out the role of automation in the process of job replacements that is often blamed on the immigrants.

There are many people enthusiastic about both Trump and Harris in this election. Trump’s voting base views him as the candidate who is going to cut taxes more and reduce regulations while the supporters of Kamala Harris appreciate her competency, and relatively similar policies to the Biden administration. “Trump is very good at being a performer, and to some degree, it actually matters. If you are trying to push a policy and you get the country behind it, it is easier to make it happen,” adding that Kamala Harris is not incredibly dynamic. “I don’t think this is an election where that vast majority of people who vote for Harris are absolutely excited to vote for her,” adds Scott Eastman, with a close-up remark that her strength lies, to a certain extent, in the sense of the current administration continuity.

From the foreign policy perspective, there are two major conflicts stressed in the US media and political discourse – the war in Ukraine and the war in the Middle East. “For the average American voter, it is not as important, but it is very important for the election because of demographics,” explains Scott Eastman. He uses Michigan as an example, as it is one of the swing states with a large Muslim population that will not vote for Harris because of the Biden-Harris current policy. On the other hand, there are also attempts by some prominent imams (Muslim clerics and leaders) to increase the support for Kamala Harris, stating that she has paid more attention to Palestinians and Muslims throughout her time in office than Trump. “The reality is that the US has a very strong alliance with Israel and that’s not likely to change very much.” From the conflict perspective, it is more young voters who care about the death of civilians caused by Israel, as they are a generation further from the Holocaust and have only known Israel as a very strong state. With Ukraine, it is even fewer people for whom the war is a decisive issue. Over time, the general American support has diminished, and people have started viewing the conflict as a frozen one and are questioning the continual need to support Ukraine.

Besides the general public, US partners are also closely watching the election with respect to their formed alliances. “Either way it is still going to be a superpower,” comments Scott Eastman on the question focused on the US future role under the Harris or Trump administration. Donald Trump is less interested in multilateral agreements but is open to bilateral negotiations. “He is susceptible to authoritarian people who complement him,” adds Eastman and points out the unknown aspects of his possible second term. Indeed, there is one area that brings both Harris and Trump closer, which is the US-China relations. Both candidates see China as the largest economic and military competitor and view the current status of Taiwan as crucial to keeping the status quo in the region.